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PJM and Transource Scheme to Skew Benefit/Cost Analysis

10/29/2018

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by Barron Shaw, Citizens to Stop Transource
In recent days it has become apparent that PJM and Transource are attempting to re-frame the proposed IEC high voltage line project that would cross preserved farms in Pennsylvania and Maryland.  The project was originally proposed and filed in both Pennsylvania and Maryland as a market efficiency project, for the sole purpose of reducing the price of electricity in the Washington DC metro market.[1]  As the case has progressed, both Maryland and Pennsylvania have expressed misgivings about the project, capped by the revelation two weeks ago that the IEC would result in a net loss of $480M across all PJM zones.[2]
 
Faced with near certain failure, PJM is trying to reposition the IEC as a reliability project.  Their contention is that unless the project is built, there would be serious reliability issues.
 
This is a desperate assertion made by an organization that has no credibility remaining.  PJM put this project forward as an “efficiency project” knowing that it would cause a significant increase in rates in Pennsylvania and surrounding states.  PJM turned a blind eye to using two newly constructed high voltage lines owned by other utilities that parallel the IEC-East that stand half empty, and when asked, said it wasn't their job to ensure their usage.  PJM allowed Transource to announce their new cost estimates one month after PJM announced their recalculated benefits for the project, in effect giving Transource the ability to provide the “right” answer and save the project from cancellation.  PJM selected Transource's proposed project, even though it was by far the most expensive bid, and included no cost cap.
 
Why would anyone believe PJM's assertion that this project was suddenly all about reliability?  The load forecast for the target market is flat, and every year the forecast is decreased.[3]  New high voltage lines in York and Harford County have been constructed and are operating at less than 50% capacity.  Recent and pending upgrades to move power across the grid in Maryland have drastically cut electrical congestion.  The project is simply not needed.
 
Regulators in both Pennsylvania and Maryland have spent millions analyzing this project for purposes of market efficiency, analysis that is completely useless in the context of reliability.  Transource has already spent upwards of $50M that will all be reimbursable to them, even if the project is canceled.  PJM has wasted too much taxpayer money already.
 
This project is dead, and it is time that PJM admits it and moves on... before people begin to question why PJM is needed at all?


[1] http://www.puc.state.pa.us/pcdocs/1548138.pdf page 7,8

[2] http://stoptransourcemd.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/OCA-Direct-Testimony-of-Scott-Rubin-Statement-1.pdf page 38. 

[3] https://www.pjm.com/-/media/library/reports-notices/state-specific-reports/2016/2016-maryland-and-dc-state-reports.ashx?la=en page 25-27
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What Transmission Does to Landowners

10/25/2018

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I'm a huge fan of landowners participating fully in the regulatory process.  I encourage them to file testimony, because they are the preeminent experts on their land and their business.  I'm thrilled when I see landowner testimony, and the testimony of Barron Shaw is a well-written account of what it would be like to be trespassed by the Transource Independence Energy Connection.

Mr. Shaw is the owner and operator of Shaw Orchards.  He also lives on the property, which has been in his family for generations, since the early 1800's.  More than 100 years ago, Mr. Shaw's ancestors started commercial operations as Shaw Orchards.

Being a farmer is not an easy life, but yet these brave souls do it anyhow.
Farming is hard. And the farming of orchard crops is arguably the most difficult. Every time it rains during the period of April through July, my apples are at risk from disease, requiring frequent and expensive protective chemicals. We have experienced two major exotic pests in just the last 6 years, with Brown  Marmorated Stink Bug, Spotted Wing Drosophila, and a third pest, The Spotted Lanternfly, which has spread to the next county will arrive next year if it is not here already. Most of the apple varieties we produce on the farm are worth little more now than they were 30 years ago, while labor, chemicals, and insurance, our three biggest expenses, have increased significantly in that time. The labor supply for the hard fieldwork is almost non-existent, and our crew size shrinks each year. My wife and I work an average of 12 hours a day, six days a week, from mid-March through November each year. We do not have a summer vacation.
Still, there is something intrinsically good about farming that is difficult to describe to those who have not experienced it. Maybe it is the challenge of overcoming all the adversity. Perhaps it is the knowledge that thousands, hundreds of thousands of people, have been nourished through our efforts. Or maybe it is a pride that our orchard is an important destination for thousands of people each year who would otherwise not be able to teach their kids where food comes from. Whatever the reason, in the sincere words of Washington, “I'd rather spend a day on my farm than be emperor of the world.”
Shaw Orchards grows and sells fruit and other crops, both wholesale and retail.  But the retail business and pick-your-own-sales are by far the most profitable, producing a return 300-1300% over wholesale prices.  Mr. Shaw concludes he would be out of business if he did not have a successful direct-to-consumer operation.

And what will Transource's new 130-foot right-of-way across Shaw Orchards do to Mr. Shaw's business?  It will make it a less desirable location for consumers.
It should come as no surprise that many customers who seek out family farms to buy fruit and vegetables are concerned with their health, and the health of their families. A large proportion of the population has concerns regarding the health effects of high voltage lines. Put simply, it doesn't matter what I think about the health effects of high voltage lines, if my customers believe that they are dangerous, then their presence will cost me money, either from people refusing to pick near them, or because they don't want food that is grown near them.
Perception is reality when it comes to the effects of proximate high voltage transmission.  No amount of electric industry studies, or overpaid stuffed suit "scientists" with utility-financed opinions can change perception.  And besides, it's impossible to prove a negative.  The electric industry simply cannot prove that high voltage lines do not have any detrimental effects on people and animals.

And, wait, that's not all.  The Transource IEC project will also cause a dangerous possibility when sited overhead of Shaw's existing irrigation system.
We use permanently sited irrigation in many of our fields, including the field that lies under the proposed power line. There are not only concerns about damage during construction, but concern that after construction is complete, an accident in the field could cause water under high pressure to jet into the line.

...a leak in the irrigation system presented a danger to those working under the lines. In this case, a break in the irrigation line under pressure was projected to fly 100 feet in the air, causing any person that came into contact with the system to suffer an electrical shock.
Is this an acceptable risk for the Shaws, who will not benefit in any way from the Transource project?  No, it's not.

And that's not all...  the Food Safety Modernization Act requires Shaw Orchards to comply with food safety regulations related to contaminated fresh produce.  Mr. Shaw has documented flocks of Starlings roosting on a nearby power line during migration.  If the Transource line is built across Mr. Shaw's fields, birds will sit on it.  And what do birds do?  They poop.  A lot.  Even the most feeble minded among us knows that if you park your car under a tree, power line, or other overhead roost, you should expect to find it covered in bird poop.  Now, who wants to eat fresh produce that's been pooped on?  Nobody.  And besides, it's illegal for Shaw Orchards to sell this contaminated fresh produce. It is not advisable to site power lines over fields of produce.

And what else?  The farm uses helicopters to spray crops, and it also uses drones. Examples of future drone usage include counting fruit tree blossoms to predict fruit load, and looking for insect infestations before they grow large.  A transmission line crossing fields makes use of these tools impossible.

The largest part of Mr. Shaw's property is preserved by Maryland's Agricultural Land Preservation Foundation (MALPF).  He may never use the land for anything other than agricultural purposes.  If Mr. Shaw wanted to run an electric line through his property to serve a future development, he couldn't do it.  However, if Transource wants to run an electric line (and not just any electric line but a double-circuit 230 kV monster) through Mr. Shaw's property to serve electric consumers in Washington, D.C. as cheaply as possible, that's okay?  Preserved land should be off limits to ALL development.  And to make matters worse, if Transource is successful in taking a right-of-way through Shaw Orchards, it must compensate the MALPF for the amount it paid for the conservation easement.  Mr. Shaw would receive a one-time payment for the agricultural value of the land within the easement, although that land would be encumbered in perpetuity and impacts to his business would be devastating and permanent.

And here's a story about Transource's coercion tactics that simply must be told.
On August 9, 2017 Transource held an open house at Norrisville Elementary School. I arrived between 30 minutes and an hour after the event began. As I walked in from the parking lot, I was immediately recognized by a citizen who took me by the arm and asked if it was true that the Shaws were negotiating with Transource. I was confused, and said we had not even spoken to Transource. She told me that Transource had been telling people that “the Shaws are onboard” and that we were negotiating during the meeting. I asked her to take me to the person who told her that. On the way into the building, I was recognized by Transource’s Public Affairs person, Mary Urban (whom I had never met in person). She tried to welcome me, but we continued together into the event and met the Transource representative who had been spreading the rumor. He confessed to stating that he believed we were negotiating. I told him in no uncertain terms that my family was not negotiating and that he must stop spreading rumors  about me and my family. I admit to raising my voice. He was ushered out of the room by other Transource people.
Wow, Transource, your audacity knows no limits!  You have demonstrated that even with your pretend "Internal Practices for Dealing with the Public on Power Line Projects," your employees will do whatever they want.  If I expected the perpetrator of this audacious act to have been fired for his gross and flagrant violation of Transource's "Internal Practices," I'd probably be wrong.  But why not?  It's almost like Transource (well, really AEP, since Transource has no employees of its own) encourages violation of its practices if it helps the company reach its goal of signing easements.  There is nothing too dirty or disingenuous for AEP!

Mr. Shaw also makes a few observations about need for the project that are stunning in their logic and simplicity.  While PJM and Transource are scrambling to keep the public confused about the project so they remain in the dark, clear messages are so desperately needed.
In an editorial published in local papers on 9/21/18, PJM Vice President of Planning Steve Herling stated the core justification of the IEC: “After all, it would not be fair for customers in one area to consistently pay higher prices than others do simply because the system's design prevented some customers from accessing the lowest-cost electricity.” The implication of this statement is that all customers are entitled to the lowest-cost electricity possible. There is no assertion here that there is any law, regulation, constitutional guarantee, or even a policy that would indicate that there is something wrong with the status quo. Instead, he says, “it would not be fair.” This project is predicated solely on the assumption of an entitlement that is documented nowhere.

I believe that proximity to generating facilities should matter. People who live near generators should pay less for electricity. These are the people who tolerate the noise, the emissions, the visual impacts, and the other deleterious effects of large generating facilities. These are the people who absorbed the capital charges for existing facilities in their rates over the years. There is as little logic in Mr. Herling's statement as there is legal responsibility to approve a market efficiency project... none.
And this:
Large-scale transmission intended solely to decrease Locational Marginal Price (LMP) has the adverse effect of discouraging investment in generation capacity in the destination market. Maryland imports 47% of their electricity, and Washington DC imports 100%. For each megawatt that is imported into the  state, the decreasing price provides less incentive for generators to make an  investment in the state.
PJM cannot order generation, therefore it orders transmission.  Generation is left to market forces which are never allowed to work before PJM proposes a transmission line to obviate any new builds.  This system is broken and in desperate need of fixing.

Transource IEC is hardly a harmless infrastructure project for the Shaws and Shaw Orchards.  The impacts will be prolonged and severe.  The project will require Mr. Shaw to completely change his operations in and near the proposed new transmission right-of-way, and hopefully recover at some point in the future, while sustaining an instant loss.  For these impacts, Mr. Shaw and Shaw Orchards will not be compensated at all.  Instead, he may be compensated for the value of the land, not the value the land provides year after year.

And if the Transource IEC is not built?  What will be the impacts to others?  They may pay a few pennies more on their electric bills, according to PJM.  There's nothing "fair" about that.
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More Expert Testimony Reveals Transource Project Isn't Needed

9/29/2018

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In Part Deux of our look at the expert testimony filed on behalf of the Pennsylvania Office of Consumer Advocate, let's consider the testimony of Peter Lanzalotta and Geoffrey Crandall.

Peter Lanzalotta is a electric power engineer who takes a look at PJM's dreadful planning process and the other viable options PJM didn't consider when evaluating the Transource project.
First, neither Transource nor PJM considered minimizing the environmental impacts of new
transmission ROW and new transmission towers proposed for the IEC. As discussed later in my testimony, there are two existing available PPL transmission lines on existing rights-of-way, recently completely rebuilt with towers that have the capability of carrying an additional 230 kV circuit in the vicinity of the IEC East Project Line. PJM did not consider trying to use these as part of the IEC, because such use was not included as part of any of the proposals submitted to PJM. Such use could significantly reduce the environmental impact of this portion of the IEC.
Got that?  PJM put absolutely no value on using existing infrastructure and rights of way when evaluating solutions to its market efficiency needs.  Supposedly PJM carefully evaluated the submitted projects, but failed to recognize the cost and time savings that would result by using existing infrastructure and rights of way.  A project that uses existing assets is often cheaper, and doesn't face the costly and time consuming opposition that a project on new right of way creates.  Well, that's kind of naive, don't you think, PJM?  Maybe someday PJM will learn its lesson about greenfield projects of questionable necessity and include just such an evaluation in its review criteria.

In addition, PJM's shoddy attempt at competitive transmission creates another senseless conundrum.  PJM only considers projects that are submitted in the competitive window, even if better solutions are available.  PJM pretends to have no idea what existing transmission assets are out there (belief in this is hard, I know) and would have no way of determining that a transmission need could be met cheaper and faster by using existing infrastructure.  Perhaps it's time for PJM to re-evaluate its process here.  FERC's Order 1000 that instituted competitive transmission processes was supposed to be for the purpose of saving consumers money on necessary transmission.  PJM's attempt at process has lost sight of the goal.  The tail is wagging the dog here.

Lanzalotta next disposes of Transource's claims in the media that its project improves reliability.
Q. Transource witness Ali testified that an additional benefit of this Project was that it would also improve reliability. How do you respond?

A. Any major new piece of transmission line infrastructure will provide additional paths for power to flow, and thus could potentially improve reliability. However, there is no stated reliability need here, based on the Company’s filed testimony.
Transource is a solution in search of a problem.  Sounds kind of like gold-plating "reliability" to me.  We only build reliability improvements when there is an identified reliability problem.  No problem, no solution needed.

So, what is the purpose of this project?
PJM solicited proposals to address congestion on the AP South Reactive Interface (“APSRI”) as part of its 2014/15 Long Term Proposal Window. The APSRI is a set of four 500 kV transmission lines running from West Virginia into Maryland and Virginia. If the sum of the power flows over these four lines exceeds certain calculated limits, then the electric system can be susceptible to low voltages or voltage collapse under certain operating conditions. The power flow across the APSRI must be kept within these limits. Sometimes that means that less expensive-to-operate generating units outside of Maryland and Virginia will be backed down to generate less power, while more expensive-to-operate generating units inside Maryland and Virginia will be ramped up to generate more power, thus resulting in decreased power flows across the APSRI and increased generation costs for Maryland, DC, and Virginia customers.10 Transource witness Paul McGlynn references the PJM Independent Market Monitor, which has estimated that congestion costs on the APSRI were about $800 million from 2012 through 2016. The IEC reduces congestion costs on the APSRI by providing an alternative path to load centers in Maryland, DC, and Virginia, connecting them mainly to lower-cost generating units located outside of these areas.
So because the DC-metro area is such a power suck of power generated in West Virginia, sometimes its sucking exceeds the capacity of the existing transmission infrastructure and the power hungry have to suck from more expensive power plants closer to their own neighborhood.  Wah!  Cry me a river, fellas.  And, hey, look, there's that $800M figure that Transource says its project will save for the DC suckers.  And where did that number come from?  Apparently it's the sum of congestion from 2012-2016, when congestion costs were much higher than they are right now.  Why is PJM cherry-picking old congestion figures that support this project?
Picture
As Table 3 shows, the annual congestion costs due to the AP South Interface have been sharply declining since 2014 both in absolute terms and as a percentage of PJM total congestion costs. The 2017 annual congestion cost due to the AP South Interface has decreased by more than 95% from 2014.  Table 3 also shows the total decline in PJM
congestion costs since 2014. For 2014, total PJM congestion is $1.98 billion. For 2017, total PJM congestion has decreased to $697 million. This means that total congestion on PJM’s transmission system has decreased by more than 60% over the past three years.
That's why.  All part of PJM's magic math!

Lanzalotta takes a look at PJM's benefit-cost ratio for this project and finds...
One of the major shortcomings of PJM’s process of determining the B/C ratios of the IEC Project is that the costs of the project elements have not been updated since the project was initially evaluated in 2015.
Lanzalotta testifies that the cost of building transmission has risen 7.76 percent since 2015.

Another issue with the B/C ratio is the fact that PJM's electric load forecasts are way too high.  Historically, they always have been.  This is nothing new, however, PJM refuses to acknowledge this fact.  And magic math is born.
Summer peak loads and peak load forecasts have been declining across PJM’s Mid-Atlantic area for at least the past five years or more. This area includes loads in New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC, and Pennsylvania, some of which are loads that contribute to the projected loads on the IEC Project transmission lines.
And then Lanzalotta mentions new generation that PJM also didn't take into account.
In recent months, there have been proposals of new renewable resource generating units
proposed to be located in Maryland and Virginia on the load-side of the APSRI. On July
24, 2018, Dominion Energy announced new plans to add 3,000 MW of new solar and wind generation during the 2020s. The Dominion announcement also referenced plans to add 240 MW of solar generation to be located in Virginia. There is no indication that the effects of any of these recent proposals, which could reduce the amount of load in Maryland and Virginia potentially being served over the APSRI, have been reflected in PJM evaluations of the IEC Project.
Which brings us to the testimony of Geoffrey Crandall, who provides a bunch of evidence that Maryland, Washington, DC, and Northern Virginia are actively planning to bring new renewable generation, energy efficiency, demand response, distributed generation, and other non-transmission alternatives to the Transource project.
There are also non-transmission alternatives that could address the load requirements in the MD-DC-VA area and reduce any congestion levels that currently exist in the Project area and without the impact on land, the environment and communities that have been identified in the public input hearings and site views.
Hey, now, that's a novel idea, PJM!  Perhaps the power suckers could build what they need right in their own neighborhoods instead of sucking it out of WV and PA.  But Crandall points out that PJM didn't even consider this option.  The only thing PJM can order is transmission, therefore transmission is the solution to every problem.  Except it's not, it's really not.  And here's the real kicker... MD, DC & VA all have their own energy policies that are encouraging local solutions to the problem PJM is trying to solve for them by importing more dirty power from the west.  These areas don't even want this project!  So, just like bequeathing reliability we don't need, PJM is also usurping the authority of these states to manage their own energy programs.  Maybe PJM is trying just a bit too hard to please its investor-owned utility membership that wants to sell more of its dirty power into the DC-metro area in order to prop up marginal power generators that might otherwise close.  Whose needs does PJM serve again?  It's not the electric consumers.

All in all, this is the BEST testimony I have seen filed in any state transmission permitting case (and I've seen a lot of them over the years).  Bravo to the Pennsylvania Consumer Advocate's office for so skillfully fulfilling it's mission for benefit of electric consumers.  Perhaps PJM should take some notes so it may begin to reform itself to actually serve consumers?

We don't need the Transource IEC project and it will not be approved.  Isn't it time for, at the very least, putting this project in abeyance until further studies can be performed?  We simply must stop the waste of consumers' money going on here for a project that will never be constructed.
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Pennsylvania Testimony Bombs Transource Project

9/26/2018

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Yesterday was the due date for testimony opposing the Transource project at the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission.  And it was like a bomb... completely destroying all the pretense of economic benefit from the project.  The truth about the project and PJM's "magic math" will change the way people think about this project forever.  There is no economic benefit for Pennsylvanians.  In fact, Pennsylvanians will end up paying much higher energy costs if this project is approved by the PUC and constructed.

First let's look at the testimony of the three experts on behalf of the Pennsylvania Office of the Consumer Advocate.  Because the testimony is so extensive, I'm going to break it up into separate blog posts for each expert's testimony.  Today, let's tackle OCA expert Scott Rubin's testimony.

Scott Rubin, an independent utility consultant and attorney testified on the regulatory policy issues raised by the Transource project.  Rubin critiques PJM's benefit-cost analysis and offers his opinion on the economic need for the project.  He recommends that the PUC deny Transource's application with prejudice.  This means that a substantially similar case for this project cannot be re-filed after denial.

Here's a quick summary of the bombshells you can find in Rubin's testimony:
• Transource’s filings in this case do not consider the effects of recent changes in Pennsylvania law that should affect the Commission’s review and analysis of the proposed projects.
• Transource’s East and West Applications each identify only one reasonable alternative route to its selected routes. The route selection process apparently failed to consider other routes that would be likely to result in lower cost and lessened environmental impacts.
• PJM’s so-called “benefit-cost” analysis for non-reliability projects like the IEC Project does not properly evaluate the benefits of a proposed project. The analysis completely ignores increases in costs that would be incurred by zones outside of the region benefiting from a project. That is, the economic analysis used by PJM and Transource completely ignores the fact that the lower-cost power that would flow into certain regions is already being used elsewhere.
• While the IEC Project would reduce costs in portions of PJM, the overall effect on PJM would be that the costs of the IEC Project would greatly exceed the project’s benefits. Indeed, accepting all of Transource’s assumptions shows that every dollar invested in the IEC Project would produce less than three cents of benefits for PJM.
• The effects on Pennsylvania consumers would be even more severe than the impact on PJM. Over a 15-year period, consumers in Central and Eastern Pennsylvania would incur increased power costs of more than $340 million while consumers in Western Pennsylvania would receive lower-cost electricity valued at only $2 million.
PJM has pretty much ignored Pennsylvania law and Transource follows suit.  A recent court case, Pennsylvania Environmental Defense Foundation v.
Commonwealth
, and Pennsylvania's recently enacted Act 45 will come into play in the PUC's decision.  Transource is trying to pretend these issues don't exist.  Read more about how these could halt the project in Rubin's testimony.

On routing, Transource failed to provide alternate routes as defined in the Commission's regulations.  Transource's "alternate" routes followed its preferred routes for a large percentage of their way.  A preferred and alternate route should not overlap more than 1/4 of their distance, otherwise there is no alternative.
Rubin does a fantastic job unpacking and explaining PJM's magic math.  While PJM and Transource have been telling the public that the project will save some $800M in energy costs over its first 15 years of use, Rubin reveals that those "benefits" are  not offset against any increased power costs elsewhere in the region.  The $800M in savings is for the special people in the Washington, D.C. metro area.  Costs in Pennsylvania will go up.  Instead of balancing the savings for Washington against the costs for Pennsylvania to come up with an overall "savings," PJM tosses out any numbers from zones that show an increase in costs before adding up its "savings."  Only zones that show a savings are used to measure savings.  Zones that show increased costs are not included in the "savings" equation.
If a zone has a positive ΔNLP – that is, its power costs increase over the 15-year study period – the zone is dropped from the calculation. Only zones whose discounted sum of ΔNLP is negative – that is, power costs decreased over the 15-year period – are included in the benefits calculation.

For this example, I will assume a very simplified system with only three zones. The 15-year NPV of ΔNLP shows the following: Zone 1 has a benefit (lower ΔNLP) of $100; Zone 2 has a benefit of $50; and Zone 3 has a detriment (higher ΔNLP) of -$110. Overall the three zones experience net savings of $40 ($100 + $50 - $110). For purposes of PJM’s analysis, however, Zone 3 would be dropped from the calculation and the project would have a “benefit” of $150.
$800M in "benefits," PJM?  I don't think so.  PJM put its finger on the scale!

And then there's the way PJM calculates "costs."  They use a form of revenue requirement, but not one that in any way resembles the  ratemaking revenue requirement that determines how much consumers actually pay.  Consumers pay a lot of additional costs over and above the capital costs of a project.  PJM's cost calculation is a complete lie... even when the costs are actually updated, which Transource has failed to do.

Rubin confirms that the only purpose for the Transource project is to lower costs for the special people in the Washington metro area.
To over-simplify a bit, the IEC Project will lessen the alleged electrical barriers (congestion) and enable lower-cost electricity to reach the higher cost areas of MD-DC-VA. To be clear, MD-DC-VA have plenty of power, so the IEC Project has no reliability benefit; but costs to those areas can be reduced if additional power can be imported cost effectively from lower-cost areas.
Mr. Rubin takes a deep dive into PJM's benefit-cost analysis and pretty much concludes that PJM's methods don't follow recommended benefit-cost methods.  And here's where the premise for the Transource project falls apart.  I mean just falls completely apart.
Q. Does the so-called benefit-cost methodology required by PJM and used by Transource meet the requirements of a benefit-cost analysis?
A. No. The PJM methodology used by Transource fails to capture all of the benefits and costs associated with the IEC Project.
Busted, PJM!  You are so busted!
...the PJM methodology ignores the negative consequences to utilities (and their customers) outside the region to be benefited. That is, when calculating the benefits of the IEC Project, Transource calculated the reduced power costs (primarily in MD-DC-VA) from being able to import lower-cost power into that region; but it failed to subtract from those benefits the higher costs that would result in other regions (including Pennsylvania) because they would no longer have the benefit of that same lower-cost power.
Do you get where Rubin is going here?  The Transource IEC is going to INCREASE POWER PRICES IN PENNSYLVANIA and other non-benefiting zones in PJM.  And here's where PJM's magic math gets sneaky:
The spreadsheet model includes a calculation of the net benefit or cost for each control area within PJM. Incredibly, though, when it comes time to determine a project’s “benefits” only those regions that would experience reduced  costs are included in the calculation. All regions whose costs would increase as a result of a project are simply ignored.
Let's say that again.
When PJM first reviewed the IEC Project, it found Project benefits of $1,188 million, as shown on the attachment to OCA II-14 (attached as Schedule SJR-1). This represents the present value of 15 years of savings in Net Load Payments (“NLP”) (that is, energy costs). The Schedule shows, however, that this figure completely ignores the zones where energy costs would increase as a result of the IEC Project.
Let's take a look at this table.
Picture
In the table provided by Transource, a positive number represents an increase in power costs (that is a net cost or detriment from the IEC Project) and a negative number represents lower power costs from the IEC Project (a net benefit). Take the first row as an example. AECO is the Atlantic Electric zone within PJM (the greater Atlantic City, NJ, area). This shows that over the first 15 years with the IEC Project in service, power costs would increase by [$17.90] million for Atlantic City area customers if the IEC Project is completed. Simply, this means that AECO currently is able to use slightly more of the lower-cost power than is economically optimal because of constraints that keep some of that power from flowing into MD-DC-VA.
See this PJM zone map to find the corresponding geographic areas that will either pay higher or lower prices if Transource's project is built.  This is a quick and easy way to demonstrate that the Transource project will cost money, real money, to electric consumers in non-benefiting zones.  And remember, PJM did not include these increases in costs in its calculation of "benefits."  Its almost as if the people in these zones don't exist... only the special people who will receive the lion's share of PJM's "benefit."

So, how much does the Transource project actually lower power prices overall in the PJM region (as if every consumer in every zone mattered equally).  $17.05M over 15 years.  If the increased power prices are subtracted from the decreased power prices, there's only $17.05M of savings left.
The net efficiency gains are the only true measure of the IEC Project’s benefit. The approach used by the Company assumes that the lower-cost power that flows into MD-DC-VA would not otherwise confer any economic benefit but for the construction of the IEC Project. In reality, though, that lower-cost power is being used in other regions of PJM (primarily Pennsylvania and New Jersey).  Thus, the benefits from the IEC Project should be measured as the reduction in power costs in MD-DC-VA, offset by the increase in power costs in regions like parts of Pennsylvania where power costs will increase.
And then the mushroom cloud appears that vaporizes any economic need for the project:
Q. If the IEC Project provides net benefits of $17 million over 15 years, should it be constructed?

A. No. As of September 2018, the estimated construction cost is $366 million, resulting in an estimated 15-year cost (PVRR) of $498 million. Thus, the IEC Project would cost significantly more than the benefits it would provide, resulting in a benefit-cost ratio of only 0.03. That is, for every dollar spent on the IEC Project, it would provide only three cents worth of benefits. Because the IEC Project is being built solely to reduce power costs, and not to provide any reliability benefits, the IEC Project is not economical and
should not be built.
So, if IEC is going to produce $17M in "benefits" over 15 years, how much is it going to cost again?  Even with PJM refusing to update the cost of the project since 2015, PJM's little revenue requirement number is $498M.  Let's say that's a cool half billion for argument's sake.  That's five hundred million dollars of your money spent in order to create a total of seventeen million dollars of overall benefit for all consumers in the region.

The real cost benefit ratio for the Transource project is 0.03, not the 1.4 PJM recently claimed after their own magic math analysis.  For every dollar you spend on this project, you will receive 3 cents in return value.  That's a loss of 97 cents on every dollar you pay for this project!  That's completely outrageous, PJM!  What the heck are you doing with my money?  Has PJM forgotten their purpose?  It's supposed to be for benefit of electric consumers in the region (ALL electric consumers, not just special ones).  However it now seems more like PJM works in a discriminatory fashion only for benefit of certain consumers.  Or maybe they only work for utility member financial gain.  One thing's for sure... PJM is not working for me!

And another thing... Rubin's testimony confirmed that PJM's cost allocations for the Transource project are set in stone at the time the project was originally approved in 2016.  Compare the cost allocation chart here with the new "benefit" chart above.  It is evident that some PJM zones that were originally assigned cost responsibility for this project because it appeared they benefited at that time are now going to end up with increased costs because of the project.  Not only do these utilities no longer benefit from a project they are forced to pay for, the project they pay for will increase their power costs!  It's like paying for a punch in the face.  As an example, let's look at the AEP zone, the first on the cost allocation list.  AEP will pay for 6.56% of Transource's currently estimated $500M cost.  That's nearly $33M dollars AEP customers will pay for the Transource IEC.  And what will they get in return for their money?  $5.3M of increased power bills.  Add it up and AEP zone customers will be paying an additional $38M in their electric bills and getting zip in return.  All cost, no benefit.  This is a stunning example of how badly PJM is failing at its job.  So, how bad is it?  Really bad, according to Rubin.
The IEC project would cost $498 million over 15 years, but it would lower power costs by only $17 million, resulting in a net loss to PJM utilities of more than $480 million. Thus, PJM as a whole would experience a net loss of $32 million per year for each of the first 15 years of the IEC Project. The Project is not economical for PJM’s utilities (and the consumers who purchase electricity from those utilities) and should not be constructed.
A little closer to home, Rubin makes the same kind of analysis including only Pennsylvania utilities (remember, the PUC works for Pennsylvanians, not PJM customers as a whole).
Thus, when including the costs of paying for the IEC Project, the net effect on Pennsylvania would be to have power costs increase by approximately $367 million over the next 15 years, or by more than $24 million per year.
Get that, Pennsylvania!  Your costs will only increase.  There is no "benefit" for Pennsylvania.  And PJM expects the PUC will approve this project?  Why should they?  No sane person pays to be punched in the face... or the wallet.

After reading this testimony, I'm pretty sure PJM's and Transource's facade of magic math, half-truths, and lies has worn completely through.  It's over.  Transource's project cannot be approved.  It's time to cancel this project, which is costing me more money every day this farce continues.
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PJM and Transource Attempt to Hustle Citizens With Doublespeak

9/19/2018

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In the wake of PJM's recent incomplete and inaccurate "analysis" of the cost benefit study for the Transource Independence Energy Connection, both PJM and Transource have been bloviating in the media about the relevance of their recent "findings."  It's almost like Tweedledee and Tweedledum got together to devise a new joint public relations strategy to assuage the public concern.  (And wouldn't that make for some interesting data requests!) 
Look, fellas, it's NOT WORKING.  I'm not sure who you were trying to kid with all that doublespeak, but it's only further enraged and inspired the public to speak out against the project (and now PJM) in opposition.

Let's start with Steve Herling's Op Ed in the York Dispatch, since it inspired a bunch of new public comment in opposition to the project yesterday in Franklin County.  Mr. Herling's Op Ed is a distinct contrast to what he said during the TEAC meeting on September 13.  But if you didn't attend that meeting (or listen in over the phone) you might not realize how much doublespeak it contains.

Mr. Herling starts out recognizing there is "public interest" in the project.  He thinks it's a recent development.  It's not, not at all.  The public has been concerned about this project since it was brought to their attention more than a year ago.  Opposition was overwhelming and immediate.  Mr. Herling just hasn't been paying attention until now, when it's becoming more of a likelihood that this project will be denied by the states.  Too little, too late, Mr. Herling!

Trying to explain PJM's purpose and the project's necessity to the public at this late stage is like trying to bail out the Titanic with a tea cup.  Good luck with that, but chances are the ship is going down and if you don't scurry to the lifeboat, you're going down with it.

Mr. Herling thinks he's making the electrical system efficient, economical and equitable (alliteration at its finest, probably not the work of Mr. Herling but some PR wordsmith).
After all, it would not be fair for customers in one area to consistently pay higher prices than others do simply because the system’s design prevented some customers from accessing the lowest-cost electricity.

For many years, some customers in the mid-Atlantic region, those in areas of Maryland, Northern Virginia and the District of Columbia, have had to pay comparatively higher prices than customers in other areas have, because bottlenecks in the interstate transmission system have not allowed an efficient flow of the lowest-cost power into the zone.

Oh no!  You really didn't say that, did you Mr. Herling?  Poor, poor, pitiful Washington DC and its affluent suburbs!  Because these special people don't want to have their air fouled by electric generators to serve their insatiable need for electricity, it's up to the folks in "the country" to foul their own air generating power for the cities, and then sacrifice their homes and businesses to new transmission corridors that ship it there.  All so those special folks in D.C. can save a few pennies on their monthly bills.  Maybe if D.C. stops wastefully keeping its cities lit up all night, they could save more than a few pennies (and there are other benefits that could happen in such a scenario, such as a dark night sky with actual stars in it)!  This argument falls completely flat in the sacrifice zone.  We already know we're politically disenfranchised from what goes on in D.C. and the stunning arrogance of telling us we need to sacrifice for them has been a galling lump in our throats for decades.  This argument convinces no one, probably not even these special people you're so concerned about.  The special people have closed all the dirty generators in their own region, believing what you tell them about others farther away that are happy to sacrifice to supply their needs.  We're not.  Haven't been for years. 

You mention the authority of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission like they approved this project.  They did not.  It's not even on their radar.  FERC has nothing to do with transmission siting and permitting.  FERC's only jurisdiction is over interstate transmission rates, and that has not become an issue with Transource... yet.  FERC's jurisdiction does, however, extend to the actions of PJM.  FERC expects PJM to follow its own FERC-approved manuals and tariffs while it conducts its business.  Maybe Mr. Herling should look a little closer to home when talking about the authority of FERC, to make sure he's crossed all his t's and dotted all his i's.  What does PJM's operations manual say about annual re-evaluations of market efficiency projects... and what information must PJM include in just such an analysis?  Maybe Mr. Herling should be saving up his doublespeak for FERC.

And then he says this:
PJM recently completed its annual review of the Transource project. Our thorough analysis of the many factors that go into benefits and costs concluded that the benefits continue to justify the costs.

The analysis considered factors such as recent load and congestion forecasts, current cost estimates, power flow projections, topology, interregional modeling, future fuel prices and generation interconnections.

No, it did not.  At the meeting, Mr. Herling admitted that he did not have updated cost estimates for Transource's part of the IEC.  The cost increases used in the analysis only came from other utilities tasked with updating their substations for the addition of IEC.  IEC's costs have not been updated since 2015!  That is NOT "current cost estimates."  Mr. Herling said Transource is getting ready to put its project out for bid and when the bids are shared with PJM, it will update the costs.  But there's more to deriving a cost than just a bid on materials.  PJM must plug these costs into a formula to derive a revenue requirement for each of the first 15 years of the project.  The formula contains interest rates, operations and maintenance costs and many other factors that will also have to be adjusted to produce a realistic projected revenue requirement.  When Mr. Herling stated that PJM could update the costs after bids were received I do hope he was intending to complete the entire process.  And, even if he is, a transmission project like IEC is paid for over a period of 40 years, not 15.  PJM guesses at the "benefits" over 15 years, compares it to the costs, and then hopes that the other 25 years of project life will follow the same pattern.  What happens if PJM's projections are wrong?  Do we get our money back?  And what happens if IEC ends up costing more than the projected revenue requirement?  Will the company or PJM eat the excess?  Of course not!  We will.  We the ratepayers of PJM are asked to accept all the risk of inaccurate projections.

The issue of generation interconnections also came up at the TEAC meeting.  Mr. Herling admitted that PJM did not use recent retirements in its analysis, and did not include new generation either.*

And then there's the whole reliability issue that first appeared on PJM's analysis of September 13.
During our recent review, PJM found that the Transource project also will address significant reliability issues that are emerging on the regional transmission system, including the potential overload of a key high-voltage line that carries electricity across the Pennsylvania-Maryland border.

Without the additional transmission capacity provided by the Transource project, the system could face serious violations of federal reliability standards, which would require additional measures to address.

The only data PJM provided on this issue was a list of line and transformer overloads.  There were no dates on any of these possible violations.  The reliability issue was pushed to the very end of the meeting, where there wasn't any time for questions or discussion.  How very convenient!  Did PJM perform its duty here when presenting this issue?  No, it just ended the meeting promptly.  But I have lots of questions about this new development!  Are overloaded lines and transformers easily solved by rebuilds/replacements of aging components, or is a new transmission line the only solution?  If so, why the IEC project, which was never designed (or bid) as a reliability project?  There are distinct rules for new reliability projects, and simply re-purposing an unneeded market efficiency project is nowhere to be found.  If there are truly serious reliability problems developing, PJM has a duty to take immediate action to solve them.  What PJM should not do is sit idle and watch these violations develop and hope that a market efficiency project will solve them, especially when the market efficiency project is likely to be cancelled or denied.  Does Mr. Herling think if he ignores the reliability issues long enough that he can later say that a new transmission project (just like IEC) must be built to solve them, when action now to upgrade old components would solve the problem cheaper and faster?  This wouldn't be the first time PJM ignored old, failing components while pushing for a new transmission line to "solve" the problem.

And here's Mr. Herling repeating Transource's most recent lie:
The interstate high-voltage transmission system is a shared resource, and consumers including homeowners, tenants, businesses and industrial plants throughout the PJM footprint benefit from a robust network that provides reliable and affordable electricity across the region.
Aggressive AEP mouthpiece Toad Burns also had a version of this for reporters at yesterday's hearings in Franklin County.  Todd was quoted somewhere as saying he came to the hearings to listen.  I gotta call B.S. on that one... Todd had no interest in "listening" at hearings in Franklin County earlier this year.  I suspect that maybe he only came yesterday to perform for the press and utter this nonsensical statement about regional benefits.

The idea of new transmission in one part of PJM benefiting the entire region is one that has a long and tortured history in the courts.  Circa 2005, in order to set up a way to spread cost recovery for big projects over as many people as possible in order to make everyone's share less noticeable, PJM began using a "postage stamp" method of cost allocation for a suite of big projects code named "Project Mountaineer."  These four projects were intended to increase the export of coal-fired electricity from the Ohio Valley to eastern PJM cities by 5,000 MW.  Under the postage stamp method, every utility in PJM was assigned a portion of the costs based on its percentage of load for the prior year.  PJM and FERC reasoned that every part of the system received some benefit from these new projects in eastern PJM, although they could not quantify these benefits.  Some utilities in the western part of the region, who were paying a large percentage of the costs due to their load, believed they were not receiving a corresponding amount of benefit.  The case ended up before the 7th Circuit, who remanded it back to FERC (twice!) requiring FERC to quantify the benefits, at least roughly.  It never happened.  Instead, FERC and PJM devised a new cost allocation scheme where ultra high voltage projects (double-circuit 345kV, 500kV and 765kV) would be allocated 50% postage stamp and 50% DFAX, where cost causers and beneficiaries are assigned costs commensurate with their use of the project.  In one memorable analogy from the 7th Circuit's opinion, it was said:
The incidental‐benefits tail mustn’t be allowed to wag the primary‐benefits dog.
And this analogy holds true today in response to PJM's and Transource's bogus argument that citizens in York and Franklin counties benefited from some unnamed transmission project in Indiana several years ago.  Which project was that, exactly?  Or are you both just speaking in generalities in a doublespeak attempt to confuse people?  There's a whole new debate we can have over who benefits from certain projects, if you want to open that can of worms.  But, I don't think you do.  That debate has happened enough times already to give a judge nightmares, and the outcome does not support your new, bogus argument.

The fact of the matter is that York County does not benefit at all from the IEC.  Not one penny!  And it probably didn't benefit from a project in Indiana either.  Whether or not Franklin County benefits from the IEC is debatable.  Have PJM's cost allocations changed in relation to the IEC's cost/benefit analysis?  No, they haven't.  And they won't.  The cost responsibility analysis is locked in time, although if updated today it may have very different results.  And here's the ultimate bottom line... Franklin County does not benefit anywhere near commensurate with the sacrifice it is being asked to make.

Mr. Herling says stakeholders need to "understand" the project's purpose and benefits.  As if maybe they finally "understood," then opposition would subside?  Fat chance, Mr. Herling.  Your attempt at the Information Deficit technique doesn't work.  It is precisely because the "stakeholders" DO understand the rhetoric and hubris of PJM, and the profit-seeking motives of Transource, that they oppose this project.  And these stakeholders aren't going away.  They're going to be in your face until you do the right thing.

About the only thing in Mr. Herling's opinion I can agree with is that applications for the Transource project are now under consideration by the Maryland Public Service Commission and the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission.  And I believe the commissions also fully "understand" what this project is about.  Ultimately, the states have the final say here, and you're not helping yourself out by saying one thing and doing another, and ignoring a recent PA-PUC Order for Transource to update its costs before your recent analysis.  That was a pretty bold move.  Don't think the regulators are buying your doublespeak.

And, ultimately, because of PJM's refusal to acknowledge that the IEC isn't going to happen, it's enabling Transource to run up our tab unnecessarily.  The one thing missing from Mr. Herling's Op Ed is the fact that PJM serves consumers, not member utilities.  Guess Mr. Herling needs to "understand" that.

*For discussion of FSA's see recent RTO Insider article.  We'll tentatively believe their reporting on this issue, although they somehow missed the elephant stampeding through the meeting room trumpeting about there being no update of Transource's costs for the project.  It wasn't even mentioned.  Maybe RTO Insider's perspective is a bit off here, judging from the text it included on its Facebook post touting the article yesterday.  "In a rare occurrence, half a dozen residents opposed to PJM's largest-ever congestion-reducing transmission project attended last week's Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee..." -- complete with photo of the creatures in action.  Sort of reminds me of the hushed narrative you hear on nature films about creatures doing their thing while unaware they're being observed and talked about by superior creatures.  Perhaps like the infamous honey badger footage...  *warning, strong language*
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PJM Doesn't Have All The Pieces To Its Process Puzzle

9/14/2018

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We've been hearing for months that PJM would be re-evaluating the Transource Independence Energy Connection and would be releasing its results at the September Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee meeting yesterday.  But that's not really what PJM did.

The afternoon before the meeting, PJM released its "analysis."  The analysis supposedly found that the project was still providing enough "benefits" to continue, with a cost-benefit ratio of 1.42.  That means for every dollar spent, the project would return $1.42 of "benefit" for PJM consumers.  Never take PJM at face value.  Ask questions, because the devil is in the details.

And that's just what IEC opponents from Maryland and Pennsylvania did yesterday when they attended PJM's TEAC meeting in person.  Patti Hankins, Aimee O'Neill, Dolores Krick and Greg Goss asked pertinent questions and let PJM know that the IEC was a gigantic waste of time and money, and that there were better, cheaper alternatives.

And our heroes from StopTransource weren't the only ones giving IEC the hairy eyeball.  There were plenty of others questioning PJM's re-evaluation process at the meeting, including regulators and other utilities.  And it was slowly revealed during the meeting that PJM did not include much of the necessary data to make its re-evaluation meaningful.  It was a total waste of time and effort and the result was useless.  PJM said it had to "put a stake in the ground" and conduct the re-evaluation at this certain point in time.  However, PJM did not have all the data it needed to perform a meaningful evaluation.  How stupid and wasteful is that?

Here's what's missing from PJM's re-evaluation:
  1. Generation retirements.  Early in the meeting PJM recited a list of retiring generators.  And wouldn't you know it, there's a bunch of new retirements in southwestern Pennsylvania.  When asked, PJM said it had not included any of that information in its analysis of the IEC.  Let's see... the retirement of over 4,000 MW of generation in Pennsylvania won't have any effect on the economics of new transmission to bring "cheaper" power from Pennsylvania to Washington, D.C.?  Of course it will!!  Less generation coming from Western PA means less generation available to ship to D.C., and generation prices will be affected.  Including this information won't do IEC any favors, so PJM simply ignored it.  Remember, stake in the ground, so anything that happens after stake is placed is completely ignored.  How convenient!
  2. New generation.  There was a bunch of incomprehensible discussion about inclusion of FSA's, and an expected Order from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that will require PJM to include FSA's in its modeling.  It seemed to be implied that inclusion of FSA's might change the re-evaluation numbers and obviate IEC.  What's a FSA?  Facility Service Agreement.  A proposed new generator must go through a series of studies at PJM before it is permitted to connect to the system to make sure it doesn't cause problems.  At the end of the study process, a generator signs an ISA (Interconnection Service Agreement) or FSA before connecting.  But PJM excludes these proposed generators from its evaluation data, pretending that they will never be built or connect within the 15-year future used to evaluate market efficiency transmission projects.  Would the connection of new generators closer to Washington, D.C. affect the need to ship generation all the way from Pennsylvania to serve that load?  Of course it will!  So, PJM isn't paying attention to any changes to generators when it evaluates market efficiency projects, although the existence and location of generators is the basis of need for a market efficiency project.  How convenient!
  3. Costs of the IEC.  Here's a big one!  In order to make an effective cost-benefit ratio calculation, you'd think PJM would have to have accurate costs, right?  Wrong!  PJM posted an updated cost estimate for the project that increased cost around $25M.  However, upon questioning, PJM revealed that the increased costs came from other transmission owners who were required to make improvements to their own systems to support IEC.  The costs of IEC have not been updated since 2015!  So PJM is using a cost number that has no validity to make its cost-benefit analysis!  If the cost number increases (and it will) the cost-benefit ratio will change.  PJM says it is still waiting for Transource to update its costs, but you know, stake in the ground, they just went ahead and wasted a bunch of time and money doing their evaluation with inaccurate cost data.
This is absurd, PJM!!!  It's bad enough you didn't use good data to do your stake in the ground analysis, but then you announced your inaccurate results like they actually meant something!  The new cost-benefit ratio of 1.42 means absolutely nothing.  What a colossal waste of time and money!  And whose money is PJM wasting doing stupid stuff like this?  Yours and mine.  PJM has no revenue of its own.  It collects its entire budget from consumers who pay an electric bill in the PJM region.  Every day the IEC farce goes on also costs us money because IEC has received an "incentive" that allows it to apply at the FERC to recover every dollar spent on the project (plus 10.4% interest) from ratepayers even if the project is cancelled.  The more Transource spends, the more it makes!

PJM claims it is hostage to its own process.  Once it orders a market efficiency project, it cannot cancel it unless the cost-benefit ratio falls below 1.25.  PJM claims it has no authority to require cost updates by certain deadlines that synchronize with its stake in the ground re-analysis.  Nor does it spend much effort attempting to verify any cost updates it does receive.  Therefore it appears that a transmission owner can never update its costs, can fudge any cost update it does submit, and effectively prevent PJM from canceling any market efficiency project.
Transource also wants to pretend it's trapped in PJM's Hotel California.  It was ordered, ORDERED, to construct this project and it must continue to do so until PJM cancels it!  However Transource isn't running for the door.  It's barricaded itself in its room and is ordering pink champagne on ice on our tab.

PJM also wanted everyone to note that there are now supposed reliability violations when IEC is removed from the transmission expansion plan.  Oh, c'mon!  This isn't how PJM plans for reliability, and IEC was never selected to solve reliability violations.  If there's a reliability issue, PJM needs to go back to the drawing board and find the best solution, not simply recycle one that now has no other purpose.  Was pretending that IEC is now needed for reliability supposed to scare state regulators into going along with the plan?  You're a day late and a dollar short on that, PJM.  I'm thinking that all this nonsense is simply increasing entrenched opposition at the state level.  Nobody likes to be lied to, especially state regulators.

Somebody needs to step in here and protect consumers from this nonsense.  That role falls on state regulators.  Yes, they're currently involved in a permitting process, but state regulators in the past have rescued consumers from this hell by requiring updated modeling and analysis that uses actual new data.  Until that happens, it looks like its up to the consumers themselves to stay on PJM to demand better analysis and I'm pretty sure they will.

The Transource IEC is nothing but a cost burden right now and the sooner it's cancelled, the less we're going to have to pay for PJM's process failure.
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PJM Hubris

9/5/2018

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Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.
PJM President and CEO Andrew Ott doesn't seem to understand his place in the transmission regulatory pecking order.

His response to Maryland Governor Larry Hogan's recent letter to the PJM Board of Managers seemed to insinuate that the only role for state regulators once PJM orders a new transmission project is to find a route for it.
While it is the transmission developer’s responsibility to work with state and local planning authorities to identify a designated route that can balance the interests of all impacted parties, it is PJM’s responsibility to identify the need for such a project in the first instance. Understanding both the cost and societal impact a project may have, I assure you we do not embark on this responsibility lightly.
Au contraire, Mr. Ott!  The state regulator's role is to determine whether a transmission proposal meets the needs of the state and whether it produces an acceptable balance between the burdens of new infrastructure and the benefit to the citizens.  PJM's role is merely to suggest when new projects may be needed.  The state regulators have the ultimate and final say over whether a transmission project is permitted to be built.  Let's be frank here, Mr. Ott, your own beloved PJM Operating Agreement, Schedule 6, Section 1.7, releases the designated entity from building a project if it does not receive approval from all jurisdictional state regulators.
1.7 Obligation to Build. (a) Subject to the requirements of applicable law, government regulations and approvals, including, without limitation, requirements to obtain any necessary state or local siting, construction and operating permits, to the availability of required financing, to the ability to acquire necessary right-of-way, and to the right to recover, pursuant to appropriate financial arrangements and tariffs or contracts, all reasonably incurred costs, plus a reasonable return on investment, Transmission Owners or Designated Entities designated as the appropriate entities to construct, own and/or finance enhancements or expansions specified in the Regional Transmission Expansion Plan shall construct, own and/or finance such facilities or enter into appropriate contracts to fulfill such obligations.

If a state regulator denies a permit for one of your suggested transmission projects, your project is toast.

It is the state regulator who determines a need for such a project in the last instance.  And, really, that's all that matters. 

It's no great secret that state regulators in both Pennsylvania and Maryland probably don't love this project the way you want them to, and why should they?  The "benefits" of the Transource IEC  do not outweigh the sacrifice made by the states, and furthermore, much of any trumped up "benefit" will belong to residents of other states.  It's high time this project was properly reevaluated, and that you get out your Mr. Magoo specs and read the writing on the wall.

Your claim that PJM "understands the cost and societal impact a project may have" is a joke, right?  PJM is a tone-deaf hermit who pays absolutely no attention to the societal impact of the projects it orders.  PJM engineers and orders projects but never interacts with the public or pays any attention whatsoever to state permitting, opposition, or public opinion.  It prefers to only hear the fully-sanitized and overly optimistic reports of the designated entity.  Perhaps that's because PJM thinks it makes the final determination of whether transmission projects should be built and that none of those factors matter.  Your belief in PJM's omnipotence is like running around blindfolded.  Eventually you're going to hit a wall or fall off a cliff.  And that's where PJM is with the Transource IEC project.  *splat*

But, I'm an optimist.  I believe we'll hear good news on September 13, since you keep promising elected officials and affected citizens that some magic is going to happen upon reevaluation.  Because, if it doesn't, the continued fall to state denial is going to be long and hard.  And expensive.  Very, very expensive for the ratepayers you supposedly serve.

Do the right thing, PJM, cancel the Transource IEC.  It's a vital first step to cutting back on your galling hubris.

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Congestion is Fleeting, Transmission is Forever

8/26/2018

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The Baltimore Sun published an editorial last week calling for a pause and re-evaluation of the Transource Independence Energy Connection transmission project.

Do we really need it?

Elected officials, including Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, Maryland General Assembly Delegates Szeliga and Reilly, Pennsylvania House representatives Kristin Phillips Hill and Stan Saylor, have all joined citizens of both states in calling for cancellation of the IEC project.

This project never was a good idea in the first place.  It was PJM's first competitive market efficiency project, where PJM floated a congestion "problem" and eager transmission owners (and wannabe transmission owners) submitted ideas for solutions they could build if selected.  PJM selected what it felt was the best idea, and four years later here we are.  Four years.  That's a long time in the energy world, where needs are constantly fluid.  Generators going on and off line, transmission upgrades, and changing load constantly alter the need for new transmission.  Attempting to make a changing market "more efficient" by adding new transmission, and then waiting more than six years to actually bring the new transmission online is an exercise in futility.  It's nothing but a cash cow for the transmission company lucky enough to be guaranteed to recoup its investment (plus interest) in such an unnecessary pursuit.  PJM's market efficiency competitive transmission process is deeply flawed and can probably never work.  Transmission just takes too long, while the "congestion" proposed to be alleviated is a constantly changing and fleeting issue.

The PJM Market Monitor (MMU), Monitoring Analytics, issues yearly reports that cover congestion in the region, along with other issues to make a determination whether PJM's markets are competitive.  The MMU's function is to monitor and report on PJM markets and make recommendations to keep markets competitive.  PJM is regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).  The MMU describes congestion:
Congestion is neither good nor bad, but is a direct measure of the extent to which there are multiple marginal generating units dispatched to serve load as a result of transmission constraints. Congestion occurs when available, least-cost energy cannot be delivered to all load because transmission facilities are not adequate to deliver that energy to one or more areas, and higher cost units in the constrained area(s) must be dispatched to meet the load. The result is that the price of energy in the constrained area(s) is higher than in the unconstrained area.
Congestion cannot ever be completely eradicated.  Lowering congestion in one area may increase congestion elsewhere.  Building expensive, new transmission projects to lower congestion in PJM sub-regions is not the answer.  Sometimes the answer is incremental upgrades to existing transmission, or the building of new generators closer to load.  PJM does not order the construction of new generators.  PJM does order the construction of new transmission.  And when the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem becomes a nail.  The MMU has made the following recommendation every year:
The MMU recommends the creation of a mechanism to permit a direct comparison, or competition, between transmission and generation alternatives, including which alternative is less costly and who bears the risks associated with each alternative.
But PJM has yet to adopt this recommendation.  The millions of dollars wasted on the Transource IEC should become a catalyst to get this done now.  Would new generation in the DC/Baltimore/No.Va. area be cheaper than construction of a greenfield transmission project in Pennsylvania and Maryland when all the costs to the new transmission area that will not benefit from the project are figured in?  Maybe, but we'll never know.  PJM refuses to even acknowledge these costs, preferring instead to limit its "cost" of the project to actual dollars spent building the project and making low "compensation" payments to landowners affected.  But what about the increase in energy costs to those customers?  What about the economic costs to those communities from shouldering the burden of new infrastructure?  What about the devaluation of land and conservation easements that the communities have invested in with taxpayer dollars?  None of that is figured in by PJM.  It's high time true costs are calculated for communities that receive no benefit from new "fly over" transmission projects that provide little to no economic benefit.  The benefit to the whole cannot continue to overrule the disadvantages to individual communities.

Attempting to monkey with congestion is an attempt to levelize prices across a region.  Should the same energy costs to customers near a coal-fired generator in Pennsylvania be available to customers in Washington, D.C., who closed all their dirty electricity generators years ago?  Shouldn't there be a price to pay for that?  If congestion relief lowers prices in Washington, D.C., then prices must rise elsewhere.  Think of it as a teeter-totter.  As prices fall somewhere, they must go up somewhere else.  The MMU says:
For example, congestion across the AP South Interface means lower prices in western control zones and higher prices in eastern control zones. Load in western control zones will benefit from lower prices and receive a congestion credit (negative load congestion payment). Load in the eastern and southern control zones will incur a congestion charge (positive load congestion payment).
If you reverse that, no more congestion credits in the western zones.  Everybody pays the same price in both eastern and western zones.

The MMU's annual State of the Market Report has a section devoted to congestion costs tracked over the year, as well as an analysis of current transmission planning. 

Let's take a look at the MMU's tracking of congestion costs over the past 10 years:
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The 2014 State of the Market reported AP South as the biggest congestion constraint in the region.
The AP South Interface was the largest contributor to congestion costs in 2014. With $486.8 million in total congestion costs, it accounted for 25.2 percent of the total PJM congestion costs in 2014.
And in a knee jerk response, PJM opened its competitive market efficiency transmission window seeking proposals to mitigate the constraint.  Transource IEC was the winning bid.

Fast forward 4 years and the 2017 State of the Market reported
The Braidwood - East Frankfort Line was the largest contributor to congestion costs in 2017. With $43.4 million in total congestion costs, it accounted for 6.2 percent of the total PJM congestion costs in 2017.
This constraint is nowhere near AP South.  It's out in the far western part of the PJM region.  The AP South congestion has fallen to 6th place on the congestion list with a total of $21.6M, or 3.1% of the total PJM congestion cost.  Do we need a $320M transmission project to fix this (plus 10.4% interest yearly on the unpaid balance for a pay-back period of 40 years)?

Of course we don't.  But the last one to realize this seems to be PJM.  If PJM is so slow to react to changing energy markets, perhaps it shouldn't plan and order market efficiency projects that take more than 6 years to come to fruition.  Perhaps it needs to adopt the MMU's long-standing recommendation to change the way it evaluates congestion fixes.  Perhaps PJM is simply in love with its processes and has forgotten its mission to benefit consumers.

It's time to cancel the Transource Independence Energy Connection.
3 Comments

It's Time for PJM to Fall Gracefully on its Sword and Cancel Transource IEC

8/6/2018

2 Comments

 
Transource IEC opposition groups in Pennsylvania and Maryland have been slowly building for the past year.  Their building, until recently, has flown under the radar of PJM Interconnection.  Although PJM should have been paying attention (at least since it was first called to explain itself to the community at a local meeting last year), PJM chose to dismiss the opposition and tune it out.  PJM has been listening only to its "member" Transource about project progress, and perhaps its perceptions have become skewed.

The Transource IEC project is not proposed for "undeveloped land," as the PJM Board was told in a pre-approval whitepaper.  The Transource IEC project is proposed for fully-developed farmland, the majority of which is conserved.  Who does your constructibility reports, PJM?  Do you hold a seance and consult with utility planers from 1930?  It's been many years since farmland was "undeveloped land" that has no value of its own and is seeking linear infrastructure projects to increase its value to the community.  In fact, that's probably never been entirely true, although in the last century farmers were a politically disenfranchised population whose cleared, relatively flat land looked good for cheap, linear infrastructure at 30,000 feet.  That's no longer true, especially in the eastern portion of the PJM region, where dwindling farmland has become a highly-prized commodity worthy of protection from cluttered over-development.

In addition, time has not been kind to the IEC.  Like a parasitic houseguest who drinks all your beer and leaves hair on your soap, IEC has not become more valuable over time.  It's become less valuable.  And the people can't wait until it leaves for good.  Market efficiency projects have a very short shelf life, which PJM obviously realized when it inked its agreement with Transource to build the IEC project.  Now it's time to re-evaluate and send IEC to the great dump heap of failed projects.

Opposition to IEC is entrenched and wide spread.  Cancellation is the only option.

The opposition recently voiced its reasons for cancelling the project in a letter to the PJM Board of Managers.  This opposition was bolstered by additional letters to PJM from Pennsylvania Representatives Kristin Phillips Hill and Stan Saylor.  In addition, Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission administrative law judges evaluating the project have become increasingly critical of the project, with Judge Elizabeth Barnes stating that she'd be "hard pressed" to approve the currently proposed project.  Things are not going well for this project in Pennsylvania.

What's happening in Maryland?  Governor Larry Hogan recently sent his own letter to PJM requesting the project be stopped until it can be re-evaluated or develop a new route using existing rights of way.  Things aren't going so swell in Maryland, either.

Face it, PJM, this is the kiss of death for the Transource IEC.  It's time to cancel the project and go back to the drawing board, presuming any actual "need" to relieve congestion still exists.  And PJM has stated that a re-evaluation is in process and will be revealed at PJM's September TEAC meeting.  What PJM's magic math giveth, PJM's magic math can subsequently taketh away.

The number of abandoned PJM projects is steadily increasing, and with generous FERC incentives to reimburse project costs in the event of cancellation, costs to ratepayers stemming from PJM failure are well into the hundreds of millions of dollars.  Hundreds of millions of dollars added to the electric bills of PJM consumers for badly planned projects that never even get off the drawing board!  You've got a big, big problem, PJM!  Your planning process isn't working and desperately needs revision.

I'd start with PJM's subjective "constructibility analysis."  There's no uniformity here.  PJM needs to add some reality to its engineering staff.  Just because something looks good ("robust" in PJM parlance) from an engineering standpoint, does not mean it should be constructed.  Engineering needs to intersect with the reality of politics, regulation, land use, and community relations.  That's the point of a "constructibility analysis."  But there are no standards.  While I have seen "constructibility" analyses that factor in possible opposition, others don't even mention it.  Environmental factors are not the only thing that makes a project unable to be constructed as planned.  In fact, environmental factors are the ones most nimbly avoided.  It's those other factors that kill projects.  It's high time PJM add some uniform standards to its "constructibility" analyses and require each greenfield project to be evaluated according to set standards.  A greenfield project that is technically superior to a rebuild isn't so superior when it can't be built.  In that case, a lesser rebuild is the solution that best serves consumers because it is more likely to actually get built.

And PJM needs to come out of hiding and own its work.  Transmission owners hide behind PJM by claiming they're only following orders.  PJM in turn hides behind transmission owners by turning a blind eye to what is actually happening with the projects it orders, and instead receiving all its information about a project's progress from the transmission owner.  In order for PJM to have any credibility, it needs to actively participate in tracking project progress.  PJM has long been in desperate need of an effective public relations program.  Why is it that 99.9% of the consumers PJM serves have never heard of PJM?  Because PJM likes it that way.  Only when PJM realizes it exists to serve consumers (not simply member utilities) and develops a relationship with its consumers will its credibility and purpose be recognized by the consumers.  When will PJM recognize the usefulness of doing its own community consultation and not leaving that task up to increasingly patronizing and arrogant transmission owners whose only concern is the amount of money it can make from a project?

You could do so much better, PJM, on a lot of fronts.  But, for now, it's time to fall gracefully on your sword once again and cancel the Transource IEC project.
2 Comments

Opponents Request PJM Withdraw Transource IEC Project

7/16/2018

0 Comments

 
In a letter to the PJM Board of Managers last week, Transource opposition groups Citizens to Stop Transource, Stop Transource Franklin County, and Stop Transource Power Lines MD requested that PJM withdraw Transource's Independence Energy Connection from PJM's Regional Transmission Expansion Plan within the next month.

The opposition groups state that congestion savings have fallen, project costs have increased, electrical load in the target beneficiary area has decreased, overall congestion costs have been reduced 65%, use of existing rights-of-way is feasible, endangered species surveys have not been completed, and other utilities have done no work to complete their portions of the project.  It's a damning list of compelling reasons to halt the project before it incurs more costs that ratepayers will ultimately have to pay.

The groups say
While we understand that PJM feels a responsibility to Transource to allow them to fail gracefully at the state level after a protracted review, the facts demand that PJM cancel this project immediately. Millions of taxpayer dollars are being spent to review this project in two states, and landowners are fighting the project with their own attorneys.
The opportunity to "fail gracefully" also allows Transource to continue to spend money packing its construction work in progress account upon which it will receive a 10.4% return until reimbursed in full by ratepayers.  Continued spending on a project that will most likely never be constructed is irresponsible on PJM's part.  It's imperative to take a "time out" here to re-examine this project in depth.

In the past, PJM has allowed, and even eagerly supported, transmission projects that once placed in its RTEP are never revisited.  This blindly thoughtless ride on the process train has cost PJM ratepayers hundreds of millions of dollars in their electric bills for projects that have never been constructed.  Ratepayers pay a hefty penalty for PJM's lack of planning expertise, and who's to blame?  PJM, of course!  The opposition groups concluded:
The merits of this project are dwindling, the costs of the project increasing, and the timeline is slipping. By now PJM is certainly aware that there is little chance of approval. Until now, landowners have considered Transource to be their opponent, but unless PJM soon exercises its right to withdraw the project, we will hold PJM responsible. PJM will become the target of our media outreach, our legislative efforts, and potentially, our legal efforts as we hold PJM responsible for the tremendous costs incurred by landowners who will ultimately emerge victorious. Further PJM support of this project will be viewed as an abuse of process.
PJM, as a profit-neutral utility cartel, has no assets of its own at risk.  PJM's entire budget is financed by electric ratepayers in the region through rates added to customer bills.  It costs PJM nothing to continue to order and support projects that have a very low chance of being approved and built, and with federal abandonment guarantees granted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, owners of these projects actually profit from proposing and trying to permit projects that stand little chance of success.  PJM is unharmed.  Transmission owners are unharmed.  Consumers shoulder all risk for these projects, although they have no part in determining their necessity or reviewing their risk profiles in the first place.  The words "fiduciary duty" come to mind here. 
A fiduciary duty is the highest standard of care.  The person who has a fiduciary duty is called the fiduciary, and the person to whom he owes the duty, is typically referred to as the principal or the beneficiary. If an individual breaches the fiduciary duties, he or she would need to account for the ill-gotten profit. His or her beneficiaries are entitled to damages, even if they suffered no harm.

Simply put, as an impartial regional transmission planner for benefit of electric customers in the region, PJM accepts a fiduciary duty to act in the best interests of the consumers who benefit from its actions.  PJM is failing here.  While sticking to a risky plan to cure supposed reliability violations may have some basis, when a doubtful project's only purpose is to save ratepayers money, continuing pursuit in the face of imminent failure can only be called reckless.  The only guarantee here is that the Transource IEC project is going to cost ratepayers money.  Benefits are a gamble, costs are a certainty.

Based on my years of experience assessing the probability of transmission proposals actually being approved and built as ordered, I find that the chances of the Transource IEC project being approved and built on time and on budget hovering near zero.  If PJM chooses to ignore the opponents and proceed on its merry way with the IEC, it deserves all the public scrutiny and anger it receives.  It's time to turn our attention to PJM and demand more accountability to ensure that the organization created for our sole benefit performs as intended.
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    About the Author

    Keryn Newman blogs here at StopPATH WV about energy issues, transmission policy, misguided regulation, our greedy energy companies and their corporate spin.
    In 2008, AEP & Allegheny Energy's PATH joint venture used their transmission line routing etch-a-sketch to draw a 765kV line across the street from her house. Oooops! And the rest is history.

    About
    StopPATH Blog

    StopPATH Blog began as a forum for information and opinion about the PATH transmission project.  The PATH project was abandoned in 2012, however, this blog was not.

    StopPATH Blog continues to bring you energy policy news and opinion from a consumer's point of view.  If it's sometimes snarky and oftentimes irreverent, just remember that the truth isn't pretty.  People come here because they want the truth, instead of the usual dreadful lies this industry continues to tell itself.  If you keep reading, I'll keep writing.


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